Northern Bering Sea Surface Trawl and Ecosystem Survey – 2023

This project supports research on juvenile salmon abundance and ecology as part of the 2023 Northern Bering Sea (NBS) surface trawl salmon and ecosystem survey. The NBS is a key rearing area for juvenile salmon from the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim (AYK) Region, which has historically supported approximately 83% of the statewide subsistence harvest of Chinook salmon, 97% of the subsistence harvest of chum salmon, and 66% of the subsistence harvest of pink salmon. This project will provide juvenile abundance estimates and pre-season projections for Yukon River Chinook, fall chum, and pink salmon and evaluate the distribution of marine salmon predators in the study region. Juvenile data will be used to assist subsistence fisheries management through pre-season forecast estimates of adult run size.

This project will fill in knowledge gaps surrounding the early life history of salmon species in the NBS, as well as assist fisheries management through pre-season forecast models of run size. Independently determined and reliable pre-season forecasts used in combination with traditional adult based forecasts will help promote sustainable subsistence fishing opportunities by assisting with the communication of management plans, enabling management strategies to be developed consistent with stock status, and reducing management uncertainty regarding the available harvest. Additionally, the ability to predict Chinook and chum salmon adult run abundance several years into the future using juvenile based forecasts allows fishery managers and stakeholders to be more adaptive to changing run sizes years in advance. An improved understanding of the predation ecology of salmon in the NBS will help provide an important ecosystem context to juvenile abundance and survival.