Shifting the Baseline for Salmon Escapement Goals: Causes and Solutions

This project investigated how temporary shifts in the stock-recruitment relationship might affect the estimated escapement goal. In addition, it looked at how management precision (ability to meet the escapement goal irregardless of the magnitude of the return) might affect the persistence of any biases caused by such a temporary shift. The results showed that the initial contrast in spawning stock abundance in the data set was very important in the ability to reliably estimate escapement goals.

Inappropriately low salmon escapement goals risk extirpation of substocks and put future subsistence harvests at risk. This project will investigate whether the recent spate of low escapement goal estimates for troubled Alaskan salmon stocks is warranted or not. If sources of bias are found, fixing them will improve the security of future subsistence harvests. If found to be warranted, this will reassure stakeholders and managers and could improve relationships among them.