AYK SSI Expert Panel Priority 8

The Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim Sustainable Salmon Initiative (AYK SSI) Steering Committee requested that the Scientific Technical Committee organize an Expert Panel for the purpose of addressing Research Priority #8 from the AYK SSI Research and Restoration Plan: Escapement goal setting to ensure sustainable fisheries. The Expert Panel, appointed to implement this task, addressed and advanced this research hypothesis by undertaking quantitative analysis and providing advice on appropriate methods and strategies for establishing effective harvest policies for AYK salmon stocks, based on:
• Consideration of a range of possible management objectives and the influence of management regimes on escapement goal decisions and options;
• Assessment of the influence of uncertainty and risk on the performance of escapement goals;
• Recognition of the wide variation in the quantity and quality of relevant data on AYK salmon stocks; and
• Consideration of the potential influence of future environmental change on the performance of policies.

The panel visited the AYK region to meet with managers and research biologists during summer 2009 and convened a broader meeting of Alaska salmon managers and biologists in October 2009 to seek advice on its activities. From this engagement emerged three distinct analyses. All three are examples of an approach to policy analysis referred to as Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE).

Improved understanding of the dynamics of salmon populations over time will help fishery managers understand causes of declines and recoveries of western Alaska salmon stocks, anticipate changes in salmon abundance, and ensure management strategies provide for sustainable salmon management.