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The NWFSC Scientific Publications Database serves as an archival repository of NWFSC-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, technical memorandums, reports, or other information authored or co-authored by NWFSC or funded partners. As a repository, the SPD retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

NOAA Fisheries Northwest Science Center Publication Details

CitationGuerra, A. S., K. S. Andrews, B. E. Feist, I. C. Kaplan, M. G. Jacox, M. Pozo Buil, B. Muhling, D. Pilcher, and J. F. Samhouri. 2026. A Framework for Selecting Climate Projections for Marine Spatial Research and Planning: A U.S. West Coast Case Study. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Processed Report NMFS-NWFSC-PR-2026-01. (https://doi.org/10.25923/8f27-nq63)
TitleA Framework for Selecting Climate Projections for Marine Spatial Research and Planning: A U.S. West Coast Case Study
Publication Year2026
Date03/31/2026
Keywordsclimate projections, species distribution models, decision support tool, marine spatial planning, climate models, climate change scenarios
AbstractThis document identifies the most appropriate climate change scenarios to employ during research efforts to understand the potential impacts of climate change on marine species and traditional ocean users, particularly in light of growing marine industry development along the U.S. West Coast. Given new development projects, such as offshore energy, will have permitting lifespans of 25-35 years with potential renewals extending to the end of the century, it is important to move beyond historical data and incorporate future ocean conditions into marine spatial planning. This report includes two key chapters: Overview of predicted changes to the U.S. West Coast under climate change: This section summarizes projections from high-resolution climate models forced with the highest-emission climate change scenario. Guidance for incorporating the latest climate projections into an analysis: This chapter provides an overview on climate models and offers comprehensive guidance for selecting appr
Official CitationGuerra, A. S., K. S. Andrews, B. E. Feist, I. C. Kaplan, M. G. Jacox, M. Pozo Buil, B. Muhling, D. Pilcher, and J. F. Samhouri. 2026. A Framework for Selecting Climate Projections for Marine Spatial Research and Planning: A U.S. West Coast Case Study. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Processed Report NMFS-NWFSC-PR-2026-01.
Links (https://doi.org/10.25923/8f27-nq63)