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NOAA Fisheries Northwest Science Center Publication Details

CitationFisher, M. C., L. K. Nelson, T. B. Francis, P. S. Levin, J. F. Samhouri, C. J. Harvey, L. E. Dee, K. N. Marshall, S. J. Miller, S. K. Moore, M. L. Barnes, C. H. Cha, J. E. Cinner, S. A. Gray, A. E. Punt, C. C. Ridings, and F. W. Simon. 2026. Exploring unintended outcomes and trade-offs of climate adaptation for human well-being, using qualitative network models (QNMs). Ecology and Society 31(1):1. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-16551-310101 (https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-16551-310101)
TitleExploring unexpected outcomes and trade-offs of climate adaptation in fisheries, using qualitative network models
Publication Year2026
Volume31
Keywordsecosystem-based fisheries management, social-ecological systems, qualitative network model, dungeness crab, harmful algal bloom, climate change adaptation
AbstractAdaptation to climate change can have trade-offs and unintended consequences that may add to, or amplify, climate impacts. Identifying how these unintended consequences may arise in local contexts is an important step in climate adaptation planning, but the tools for doing so are still evolving. We demonstrate how social-ecological Qualitative Network Models (QNMs) can be used to explore the unintended consequences of climate adaptation in fisheries. Drawing on the dynamics of fishers’ participation in the U.S. West Coast Dungeness crab fishery, we simulate a harmful algal bloom (HAB) in a model fishing community and compare outcomes for human well-being, with and without climate adaptation. We consider a range of climate adaptations, from coping mechanisms to transformational adaptation, based on actions identified during participatory scenario planning initiatives. We first use QNMs to identify how common trade-offs arise across adaptation strategies, specifically highlighting persis
Official CitationFisher, M. C., L. K. Nelson, T. B. Francis, P. S. Levin, J. F. Samhouri, C. J. Harvey, L. E. Dee, K. N. Marshall, S. J. Miller, S. K. Moore, M. L. Barnes, C. H. Cha, J. E. Cinner, S. A. Gray, A. E. Punt, C. C. Ridings, and F. W. Simon. 2026. Exploring unintended outcomes and trade-offs of climate adaptation for human well-being, using qualitative network models (QNMs). Ecology and Society 31(1):1. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-16551-310101
Links (https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-16551-310101)