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The NWFSC Scientific Publications Database serves as an archival repository of NWFSC-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, technical memorandums, reports, or other information authored or co-authored by NWFSC or funded partners. As a repository, the SPD retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

NOAA Fisheries Northwest Science Center Publication Details

CitationLiu, O.R., Kaplan, I.C., Hernvann, P.-Y., Fulton, E.A., Haltuch, M.A., Harvey, C.J., Marshall, K.N., Muhling, B., Norman, K., Pozo Buil, M., Rovellini, A. and Samhouri, J.F. (2025), Climate Change Influences via Species Distribution Shifts and Century-Scale Warming in an End-To-End California Current Ecosystem Model. Glob Change Biol, 31: e70021. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70021 (https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70021)
TitleClimate change influences via species distribution shifts and century-scale warming in an end-to-end California Current ecosystem model
Publication Year2025
Volume31
Keywordsecosystem modeling, california current ecosystem, climate change impacts
AbstractClimate change can impact marine ecosystems through many biological and ecological processes. Ecosystem models are one tool that can be used to simulate how the complex impacts of climate change may manifest in a warming world. In this study, we used an end-to-end Atlantis ecosystem model to compare and contrast the effects of climate-driven species redistribution and projected temperature from three separate climate models on species of key commercial importance in the California Current Ecosystem. Adopting a scenario analysis approach, we used Atlantis to measure differences in the biomass, abundance, and weight-at-age of pelagic and demersal species among six simulations for the years 2013-2100, and tracked the implications of those changes for spatially-defined California Current fishing fleets. The simulations varied in their use of forced climate-driven species distribution shifts, time-varying projections of ocean warming, or both. In general, the abundance and biomass of coasta
Official CitationLiu, O.R., Kaplan, I.C., Hernvann, P.-Y., Fulton, E.A., Haltuch, M.A., Harvey, C.J., Marshall, K.N., Muhling, B., Norman, K., Pozo Buil, M., Rovellini, A. and Samhouri, J.F. (2025), Climate Change Influences via Species Distribution Shifts and Century-Scale Warming in an End-To-End California Current Ecosystem Model. Glob Change Biol, 31: e70021. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70021
Links (https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70021)