| Citation | Spromberg, J.A., Allan, S.E., and Scholz, N.L. (2024). Modeling potential population-level impacts of future oil spills on Pacific herring stocks in Puget Sound. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, doi.org/10.1080/10807039.2023.2301529. (https://doi.org/10.1080/10807039.2023.2301529) |
| Title | Potential population-level impacts of future oil spills on Pacific herring stocks in Puget Sound |
| Publication Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 30 |
| Pages | 1-26 |
| Keywords | herring, forage fish, Puget Sound, population assessment, oil spill |
| Abstract | Oil spills threaten the productivity of marine forage fish that spawn in shallow shoreline habitats. In western North America, this includes Pacific herring, a keystone species for marine food webs. Crude oil-derived polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are highly toxic to herring embryos and larvae. Despite our understanding of individual-based toxicity, the impacts of oil spills at the population-scale remain uncertain. We modeled the response of Puget Sound herring stocks to simulated oil spills and found that declining stocks are less likely to withstand the short-term impacts of a small, localized spill. Moreover, conventional stock assessments methods may only resolve population declines in response to high rates of mortality in a single year, or sustained losses across multiple year classes. We discuss the importance of herring life history and environmental variation on the predictive usefulness of conventional population modeling, as a basis for estimating injury to hig |
| Official Citation | Spromberg, J.A., Allan, S.E., and Scholz, N.L. (2024). Modeling potential population-level impacts of future oil spills on Pacific herring stocks in Puget Sound. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, doi.org/10.1080/10807039.2023.2301529. |
| Links | (https://doi.org/10.1080/10807039.2023.2301529) |