Bristol Bay Regional Temperature Sensitivity Analysis

This project characterized stream temperature regimes in the Bristol Bay to better understand thermal habitats for spawning and juvenile salmon, calculating a suite of metrics related to the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, and variability of stream temperatures. Streams were categorized into one of six different thermal regimes using metrics including temperature range, stability, and timing. Thermal regimes represent a gradient of cold to warm habitats with Groups 1 and 6 experiencing the coldest temperatures, and 2, 3, 4, and 5 ranging from colder to warmest. Group 1 had the latest timing of maximum stream temperatures and Group 6 had the most stable stream temperatures.

Understanding climate vulnerability of salmon in Alaska will require a better understanding of salmon habitat sensitivities to changes in temperature. Model frameworks such as the one produced by this project can be used to identify populations and habitats at risk, develop monitoring and evaluation programs, inform future research and conservation needs, and prepare adaptation strategies in response to or in anticipation of change. This work will provide land managers with a vision of the magnitude of change expected and a framework for prioritizing on-the-ground adaptation strategies in relation to ecosystem and community resilience.