Bristol Bay Regional Temperature Sensitivity Analysis

This work will utilize regional stream temperature monitoring data to characterize temperature regimes related to salmon life histories in the Bristol Bay region and assess vulnerability of streams to climate change. Monitoring data will be synthesized to deliver a region-wide database with summarized metrics which can be used in fisheries management and conservation. These data will then be used in a climate analysis to identify watersheds most sensitive to warming due to changes in air temperature and winter snowpack.

Understanding climate vulnerability of salmon in Alaska will require a better understanding of salmon habitat sensitivities to changes in temperature. Model frameworks such as the one produced by this project can be used to identify populations and habitats at risk, develop monitoring and evaluation programs, inform future research and conservation needs, and prepare adaptation strategies in response to or in anticipation of change. This work will provide land managers with a vision of the magnitude of change expected and a framework for prioritizing on-the-ground adaptation strategies in relation to ecosystem and community resilience.