Harvest Evaluation Project 2019

The Tribes completed management of the 2020 Chinook salmon fishery prior to initiating the fishing season. The fishery officially began on 12 May 2020 with the Tribal Fish and Game Commission adopting the final approved harvest guidelines and regulations. SBT TRMPs (for the Salmon, Grande Ronde, and Imnaha rivers) identify fishery management areas (FMAs) that return natural-origin Chinook salmon populations targeted for Shoshone-Bannock harvest. Each FMA was managed by an abundance-based sliding scale harvest management framework that takes into account annual population viability. The framework protects all populations from over-harvest and especially those that are functioning below the critical population threshold, as defined by the ICTRT 2007. Conversely, the framework allows flexibility to increase harvest opportunities on populations that are performing above the viable population threshold. Tribal staff attended multiple US v. Oregon Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) meetings in fall 2019 and spring 2020 by conference call. As the run progressed from the Columbia River Mouth upstream to Bonneville and Lower Granite Dams, the Tribes were involved in discussions with TAC and Snake Basin Coordinators on run size updates, lower river fishery impacts, PIT tag detections, as well as generating forecasts for Lower Granite Dam, and individual FMAs. The TAC pre-season forecast for the Columbia River mouth equaled 81,700 age-4, age-5, and age-6 adults with a predicted 9,600 being of wild origin. The pre-season Snake River hatchery forecast predicted 17,127 adults returning to project areas (as measured at Lower Granite Dam). After the pre-season forecast was finalized, Snake Basin Coordinators (IDFG, ODFW, SBT, and NPT) developed return estimates for natural adults to the entire basin (7,065 to Salmon, Clearwater, and Oregon) and individually by population (FMA). The FMA forecasts were used to generate the harvest regulations and guidelines for the Shoshone Bannock Tribes. Post season (November/December), all parties will provide their harvest take and the final estimate of Chinook salmon at the Columbia River mouth shall be generated. All parties are presumed to be within take allocation based on the US v OR management plan. Harvest unique to the SBT preliminarily indicates no excess in take for either pre-season however, preliminary estimates of in-season rates indicate excess take in the South Fork Salmon River and Upper Salmon River Upper. Age specific broodyear returns in 2020 will be evaluated and included in our forecast modeling matrix. The resulting analyses will allow co-managers to develop a pre-season forecast by December 2020 for spring/summer Chinook salmon to the Columbia River mouth in 2021.

The Tribes will report their harvest estimates to NOAA-Fisheries and relevant co-managers on a weekly basis through the Snake Basin Adult Coordination Meetings. Once fishery guidelines or total impacts are achieved for an individual fishery, such fishery will be curtailed unless information suggests forecasts under-predicted escapement or an adjusted in-season forecast is made by TAC. Conversely, should information suggest pre-season forecasts over-estimate escapement, harvest guidelines will be reduced.